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Something different for you this week. I might not often display an affinity to our ex-cousins from across the channel, but boy does President Macron have a tough week ahead. The one thing Macron has sought to avoid at all costs is a Marine Le Pen far right administration – this now looks more likely than at any point before.
When Emmanuel Macron called a disastrous snap election in June 2024 after poor performance in the European Parliamentary elections, (had he not been warned by Rishi Sunak on this tactic?), he precipitated the probable end of his government. Not even the appointment of Michel Barnier as Prime Minister could halt the decline, with a no-confidence vote this week leading to 331 votes in favour of deposing Barnier, who duly resigned. It is very good of Macron to make us Brits feel a bit better about life at home.
While it took Mr Macron nearly two months to appoint Mr Barnier, he is now seeking to replace him in just two days, ahead of a Notre Dame reopening ceremony on Saturday.
The no-confidence vote further weakens the standing of Mr Macron, who, despite facing growing calls to resign, has a mandate until 2027 and cannot be pushed out. He also cannot call another election for 12 months since the last – so he is technically stuck until June 2025.
The situation does not look promising for any new Prime Minister once announced, as the left-wing La France Insoumise (LFI) party has said it will automatically call for a vote of no confidence against the next Prime Minister if they are not from the New Popular Front (NPF) - a broad left-wing parliamentary alliance.
France now has no fully-empowered government — and no obvious way to form a stable one for months — and the public is frustrated, and there remains a growing budget crisis. Investors have driven up risk premiums on French assets over peers to levels not seen in more than a decade and sent stocks in France plunging. The benchmark French equity index is on track for its worst year relative to Europe’s Stoxx 600 since 2010. Macron’s loosening grip on his agenda and Le Pen’s ascent mark the apex of a long battle between two visions of France and the European Union.
For the country, it heralds a shift away from years of business-friendly policies that transformed its image, helping lure global finance to Paris after Brexit and bring in foreign money to spur an industrial revival. But those policies angered ordinary workers, who’ve steadily been won over by Le Pen’s promises to do more for them. Is this starting to sound familiar?
The uncertainty over France’s direction couldn’t come at a worse time for the EU, with the Russian army threatening its threadbare defences, its companies outgunned by the financial muscle of American and Chinese competitors, and the prospect of a hostile sanction focussed US president about to return to the White House.
Not one to be left out, yesterday Sir Keir Starmer reiterated the key pledges that formed Labour's manifesto, but also gave new details about how he plans to get re-elected. Starmer set out his "plan for change" – explained as six "milestones" he wants the voting public to measure his government against at the next election.
The targets on housebuilding, NHS waiting lists, and school-readiness apply to England only.
Recruiting more police is for England and Wales, while clean power and raising household income is UK-wide.
The Milestones are:
Putting more money in the pockets of working people (still not sure who this relates to)
Building 1.5m homes and fast-tracking planning decisions on at least 150 major infrastructure projects
Treating 92 percent of NHS patients within 18 weeks
Recruiting 13,000 more police officers, special constables and PCSOs in neighbourhood roles
Making sure three-quarters of five-year-olds are school-ready
95% clean power by 2030
I am a bit confused when Sir Keir talks about what his government wants to do, comparing these new six “milestones” against the previous six "first steps" he set out in May, just before the general election was called.
The six milestones are ways to measure the five missions he set out in February 2023.
The missions – like building an NHS fit for the future – are meant to be the driving purpose for the government. These are what civil servants have been ordered to prioritise.
All of this is built upon three foundations - economic stability, secure borders and national security, according to Sir Keir.
I think I will leave it here for now and let our government and their counterparts in France continue to try and prove who is worse at governing their country, until President Trump returns in January with the potential to settle that argument once and for all. Do have a good weekend.
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